IoT Forecasts

Forecast Overview

The converged Gartner IoT forecast combines the best of the heritage Gartner and Machina forecasts. It provides additional detail compared with either forecast: It looks at how specific types of endpoint hardware are applied in use cases in each vertical for 206 countries. The web interface enables clients to select custom cuts of the data, based on what is most relevant to them.

This forecast provides a structured and logically rigorous set of data to clarify expectations about the future. It helps to reduce business risk by aiding executives to plan strategy and tactics based on likely events and trends. Our objective is to provide clients with forecasts that are useful, credible and as accurate as possible.

The IoT Use Cases section of the forecast provides a granular, bottom-up forecast of revenue associated with deployed endpoints and hosted use cases, representing end-user direct spend on IoT hardware and communications. IoT features hundreds of different use cases, each with different dynamics. The Internet of Things Forecast focuses on two major enterprise segments — vertical industries and cross-industries, which are further segmented over four levels to individual use cases. The forecast also includes connected consumer vehicles.




For each of the use cases included in the Forecast Database we present the same sets of data. Broadly speaking this splits into three categories: endpoint unit metrics, revenue and communications interfaces and connections. Further detail on these three elements is provided below. The forecasts cover every country in the world, as well as the regions.

Endpoint Unit Metrics

  • Endpoint Annual Shipments — Physical Units: Finished products delivered to the end user from either the distribution channel or directly from a technology provider
  • Endpoint Annual Shipments — Physical Units: Replacement: Total annual shipments of physical endpoint units for replacement of installed base units
  • Endpoint Installed Base — Physical Units: The number of products actively in use at a given point in time. This is the aggregate total of annual shipments of physical IoT endpoints associated with a client’s selection of use cases from 1990 to a selected year

Automotive use cases have special metrics that supersede the general annual shipment installed base metrics for endpoint units. To avoid double counting, because some use cases can be delivered without installing additional devices in the vehicle, the concept of the hosted use case has been introduced.

  • Hosted use case — annual net addition: It represents the annual increase in the number of endpoints being used to fulfill the selected use case. It does not represent the net acquisition of physical units but, rather, the net change in adoption of the use case within the installed base of physical units.
  • Hosted use case — installed base: A hosted use case utilizes a fraction (up to 100%) of the installed base of physical endpoints to fulfill a use case. The hosted use case — installed base represents the number of endpoint units hosting the selected use case.


  • Endpoint Annual Shipments — Electronics Revenue: Electronics value corresponding to annual shipments of endpoints, either for new placement or replacement
  • Communications Services — Annual Spending: End-user spending on connectivity, typically paid to the communications service provider. This does not include any additional services provided as part of an IoT project.

Communications Interfaces and Connections

The Gartner Internet of Things Forecast counts IoT communications interfaces and connections of all technologies.

We distinguish between three major metrics. They are defined as:

  • Communications interface — annual shipments: The number of endpoints shipped each year which contain that type of communications interface. Multiple communications interface technologies are often embedded in a single endpoint.
  • Communications interface — installed base: The number of endpoints in operation which contain that type of communications interface.
  • Communications services — connections: Annual count of IoT endpoint devices actively using the technology (i.e., with an ongoing subscription) during the forecast period. There can be multiple connections associated with a single endpoint.

Each of the elements presented in the chart below is available in the Forecast Database for each use case and each country.

Full definitions and explanation of forecast metrics are included in the document "Market Definitions and Methodology Guide: Internet of Things".

Accessing the Forecast Database

The full Forecast Database is accessible online via our Forecast Database console. This can be found via the Forecasts tab on the website.

The interface allows subscribers to select data by region, country and year. They can then select from different use cases in different sectors. Finally they choose which of our comprehensive set of metrics they want. Then hit "Search" and the data will be delivered in Excel format.

If you have any further questions about the Forecast Database, or if you would like to arrange a demo, please don't hesitate to contact us.

Lead Analyst

The lead analysts for this forecast are Kay Sharpington and Peter Middleton.

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